In October, the real estate market handed in a brilliant “report card” and achieved comprehensive growth. On November 1, the online signing data of the “National Real Estate Market Monitoring System” of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (hereinafter referred to as “MOHURD”) showed that the online signing volume of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in October increased both year-on-year and month-on-month. Among them, the online signing transaction volume of new commercial housing and the total online signing transaction volume of second-hand housing reversed the previous year-on-year decline. In addition, in addition to first-tier cities, the online signing transaction volume of commercial housing in many non-first-tier cities also increased to varying degrees.
Specifically, the online signing transaction volume of new commercial housing in October increased by 0.9% year-on-year, the first increase after 15 consecutive months of decline since June last year; the online signing transaction volume of second-hand housing in the country increased by 8.9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase was 7 consecutive months; the total transaction volume of new commercial housing and second-hand housing increased by 3.9% year-on-year, the first increase after 8 consecutive months of decline in February this year.
From the month-on-month data, the online transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in October increased by 6.7% month-on-month; the online transaction volume of second-hand housing increased by 4.5% month-on-month; the total transaction volume of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased by 5.8% month-on-month. This is the first time since 2007 that the “Silver October” has exceeded the “Golden September”.
In addition, the market recovery is not limited to first-tier cities. Data show that in October, the online transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in 11 provinces increased year-on-year, 6 more than in September. Among them, Hunan, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Jiangsu increased by more than 10% year-on-year; the online transaction volume of second-hand housing in 20 provinces increased by more than 10% year-on-year, 2 more than in September, among which Beijing, Shanghai, Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Ningxia increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
“Commodity housing sales in October exceeded expectations, and data from all aspects showed a significant rebound. This is the result of the continuous superposition of policy effects.” Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban and Rural Planning Institute, said.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on September 26 proposed “to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.” Since the end of September, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with other relevant departments, has launched a policy combination of “four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases” to promote the market to stop falling and stabilize. At the same time, various places have also followed up and optimized real estate-related policies at the provincial and municipal levels.
In October, the national real estate market rebounded, showing a positive trend of stopping falling and stabilizing. In the future, can the market growth trend continue? Can the trend of stopping falling and stabilizing be further consolidated?
“The stock policy continues to be implemented, and the incremental policy has also begun to land. The policy dividend will continue to support the market heat. In addition, November and December are the peak sales seasons at the end of the year, and it is also the stage for real estate companies to rush for performance. Therefore, the market will maintain a situation of strong supply and sales.” Li Yujia judged that the performance of the real estate market in the fourth quarter will be significantly better than that in the third quarter.